A poll released Saturday morning provides evidence that the Latin vote could tip the election in an even more profound way than previously thought.
The polling firm Behavior Research Center (Link to the report here) reported Obama with a 2 point lead over Romney in Arizona. This comes as a shock in a state with well publicized anti-immigrant laws which have been supported by Romney and other hard right conservatives. The conventional wisdom is that Arizona is more than a bit conservative.
The main stream polls have had Romney leading by 10 points or more in the state. However, what makes this poll different is that the calls were made in both English and Spanish. Most conventional polls do not conduct any polling in Spanish. This poll could be exposing an underestimation of the Latin vote for this year’s election. With the media narrative we most often hear that says Latin voters don’t show up at the polls, it provides even lower expectations and thus even more opportunity for the Latin voter to have a huge influence for this election year and beyond.
With a higher than expected turn out, it could not only tip the election to Obama, but it could mean a new power class of voters who would wield their power on federal issues such as immigration, as well as state initiatives such as for the undocumented’s right to drive and the right to work. It could also begin to address issues such as inordinate incarceration rates, employment training opportunities, higher education funding and other issues desperately needed in Latino and other minority communities.
